30-year fixed mortgage rate projections

30-year fixed mortgage rate projections

While predicting future mortgage rates remains challenging, and recent forecasts have often missed the mark, here’s where 8 leading research firms expect rates in Q4 2023 and beyond.

  • · The MBA: The trade group projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.9% in Q4 2023. Beyond this year, the group expects mortgage rates to slide to 4.9% by Q4 2024.
  • · Morningstar: Economists at Morningstar project that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.25% in 2023, 5.0% in 2024, and 4.0% in 2025.
  • · Goldman Sachs: The investment bank projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will end 2023 at 6.4%. In 2024, Goldman Sachs expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 5.9%.
  • · The National Association of Realtors: Economists at NAR forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will slide to 6.4% before the end of 2023, and then to 6.0% in 2024.
  • · Morgan Stanley: The Agency MBS strategists at Morgan Stanley project that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will start 2024 at 6.0%.
  • · Moody’s Analytics: The financial intelligence arm of Moody’s still projects that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.5% through most of 2023.
  • · Realtor.com: Economists at the home listing site believe the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will start 2024 at 6.1%.
  • · Fannie Mae: Economists at Fannie Mae forecast that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate will average 6.6% in Q4 2023. Then Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to grind down to an average of 5.9% in Q4 2024. For the calendar year, Fannie Mae expects mortgage rates to average 6.1% in 2024.

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